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2024 Q1 Quarterly Perspective - Kun Zhang
April 07, 2024|

Based on the performance of long-term government bonds and bond-like equities, our assessment indicates that the market’s risk appetite has notably contracted, as evidenced by the high priority given to static dividend yields in valuations and a skeptical view of growth potential, particularly regarding long-term corporate growth. To simplify, in the current environment, the market tends to favor Company A, with a 5% dividend yield and 1% growth, over Company B, with a 3% dividend yield and 8% growth. Companies like A have attracted substantial allocations from funds seeking fixed-income-like returns.

Historically, equities have offered higher long-term returns than bonds, primarily due to their inherent growth potential. High-quality stocks are characterized by their ability to sustain growth over time. As equity investors, it’s crucial to prioritize the search for long-term growth. While the probability of rapid growth diminishes in the period of high-quality development, the pursuit of moderate, consistent growth remains essential and can be discovered across various market niches.

More specifically, the growth of the companies, must be sustainable and not driven by aggressive expansion or excessive spending. It should come from prudent investments with sound marginal returns. We closely monitor a company’s cost control, working capital management, free cash flow generation, capital allocation, and shareholder return policies. Furthermore, valuation trends over the past three years have shown an increase for Company A and a decrease for Company B due to market adjustments in long-term growth expectations. We believe that, based on various indicators such as price-to-earnings and market value to free cash flow, the current valuations of Company B, with its prospects for long-term quality growth, presents an attractive investment opportunity.

(Extracted from Kun Zhang's 2024 Q1 quarterly report)

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